On this episode of the GeekWire Podcast, we’re joined by Colin Sebastian, senior research analyst at Baird and one of the most respected voices in tech and internet investing.
We dive into how Amazon, Google, and Meta are positioning themselves in the AI era — from Amazon’s Alexa+ and infrastructure strategy, to Google’s balancing act between search and generative chatbots, to Meta’s AI talent push.
Sebastian also shares his take on the broader investment climate, how he separates hype from lasting value, and how AI is reshaping his own research process.
Plus, we get his outlook on the next wave in gaming, the signals he’s watching in the data, and how today’s AI boom compares to the dot-com era toward the start of his career.
Listen below, and continue reading for highlights.
AI vs. the dot-com era: “Obviously there’s a lot of hype, a lot of excitement around generative AI. But we don’t have that situation where there are a lot of unprofitable companies. So I think it’s a healthier situation this time around.”
Amazon’s strategic positioning: “I do think Amazon views devices and conversational interfaces as very important strategically. … But the fact of the matter is, if OpenAI and other models want to be involved in e-commerce, they really have to tap into Amazon’s marketplace.”
Meta’s AI ambitions: “In five years, 10 years, what platform do people use to accompany them throughout the day, to answer questions, to complete tasks for them? [This is] why Meta feels like they have to have some of the best brains in data science and artificial intelligence. It’s very important that Meta AI is one of the leading digital assistants, and I think that explains a lot of what they’re doing.”
Long-term demand for AI: “What we can see is that companies are spending and they’re spending more, and they plan to spend even more. We did a survey last month of 100 corporations, and 87% of them said they will increase spending on Gen AI over the next year — and a grand total of zero out of 100 said they would spend less.”
Google’s broad position in search: “Google core search is losing share. They’re likely even declining in the number of queries in markets like the US, but they’re not standing still. They have AI Overviews, they have AI Mode, they have Gemini. And I think from that perspective, Google as a platform is still growing in terms of overall search.”
The shifting e-commerce landscape: “We did a survey of Gen Z consumers recently, and the number one tool they used to shop a year ago was TikTok, and this year it was ChatGPT. Three years ago it was Amazon, and five years ago it was Google. So first of all, it changes very quickly. … What’s interesting from a user or even cultural perspective, is people really trust the answers.”
The enduring secret to evaluating tech companies: “What we emphasize to our clients, over and over again, is just how important engineering excellence and sophistication is. That’s been probably the best metric, or common denominator among the best stocks or the best companies that I follow. … It’s hard to evaluate in a given quarter, in a given year, but you can see it culturally. … I don’t think that changes with AI.”
Audio editing by Curt Milton.
Read the full article here
