Who needs analytics? Sometimes in football you have to trust your gut in real time, and Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald ran into that situation during the team’s season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
“It was a tough one,” Macdonald said during his radio show on Seattle Sports 710 on Monday with hosts Brock Huard and Mike Salk (starting at 9:45 above). The Seattle Times broke down the play call here.
Macdonald was recounting the scenario late in the fourth quarter, with the game tied at 10 and the Seahawks facing a 4th-and-1 from the 49ers’ 19-yard line.
The second-year coach admitted that the team’s analytical model favored going for it and trying to pick up the first down in that situation. The goal would be a new set of downs and the increased odds to come away with a touchdown.
“But you are making these [calls] in real time,” Macdonald said, illustrating the dynamic at play in tense football situations where increased access to data and predictive analysis in-game can run up against the human instincts and experience of coaches making the calls.
Ticking off a variety of reasons for why he chose to ignore the model, Macdonald kicked the field goal to take a 13-10 lead. The 49ers came back and scored a touchdown and won the game 17-13.
While Macdonald said he felt pretty strongly about his decision to kick, there was “definitely an argument to go the other way.”
In a previous interview with GeekWire, Macdonald said his philosophy in Seattle is a combination of “old school principles and new school methods,” where the team is embracing tech for any edge it can get. That includes around decisions about whether to go for it on fourth down.
“We have a way to measure the advantage you get for going for it on fourth down,” Macdonald said. “Every team has that.”
Through its partnership with Microsoft, the NFL makes a variety of tech tools available to players and coaches during games. This year, a new GitHub Copilot feature is introducing enhanced AI capabilities for quicker filtering when reviewing plays. Generative AI is not being used to make in-game decisions, according to the league.
“We feel AI can streamline processes, but cannot be a substitute or supplement for coaches developing adjustments and strategies on game day,” the NFL said.
Previously:
- For Pete’s sake, what does AI think of the play that haunts Seattle Seahawks fans — run or pass?
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