Speaking on CNBC this afternoon, Madrona’s Matt McIlwain noted that he had been on the business news network a year ago with a contrarian call: bullish on Microsoft and Amazon, skeptical on Apple.
For anyone who might have been tempted to see some hometown bias in his past perspective, the 12-month scorecard validates his thesis. Amazon is up 25%, Microsoft up 15%, and Apple is down 5%.
The Seattle-based venture capitalist acknowledged being “a little bit wrong in the short term” but maintained that the performance dispersion between these tech giants will continue.
Fueling the gains is the fact that Microsoft and Amazon seem to have persuaded the market about the promise of their long-term bets on artificial intelligence, while Apple has struggled on that front.
McIlwain views Apple as facing ongoing challenges, while Google presents the most uncertainty — trading at roughly 20x price-to-earnings compared to 30x for its peers, making it “the trickiest one to guess.”
His broader point: the days of Big Tech moving in lockstep are over. The growing dispersion in performance reflects fundamental differences in their businesses and prospects.
The Seattle-based venture capitalist’s latest comments come in advance of tech earnings season. Google parent Alphabet reports its results on Wednesday, with Microsoft, Amazon and Apple earnings set for next week.
McIlwain also weighed in on the reopening IPO window, highlighting Figma as an ideal candidate to test the market. He expressed cautious optimism about the surge in crypto-related filings following Circle’s impressive gain since its June debut.
Watch the full segment above from CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime.”
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