His analysis accounted for inventory buffers, indicating “pricing surge would neither be in a single spike but rather 2-3 spikes and nor the pricing surge will be concurrent across vendors.”
Manish Rawat, Semiconductor Analyst at TechInsights, provided a more graduated timeline showing enterprise hardware prices rising 15-25% within 6-18 months as vendor stockpiles diminish, escalating to cumulative increases of 30-40% for systems using advanced Asian-manufactured chips. “Pricing may become tiered based on component origin,” Rawat warned, creating new complexity for enterprise procurement teams.
Vendor landscape reshuffles competitive positioning
The exemption framework creates clear winners and losers among enterprise suppliers, potentially reshuffling competitive relationships that have dominated the industry for decades. Companies with established US manufacturing — including NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, and Apple — gain significant pricing advantages over competitors dependent on Asian production.
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