“The answers to these questions have direct effects on GDP, the labor market, and the share of the pie taken home by workers,” they wrote.
Under their definition of “modest” change, AI will add less than half a point to GDP by 2030, meaning it will increase the growth rate of the national economy by just 0.5%, and will raise unemployment by just a tenth of a point, a minor shift. In this future, it’s difficult to see AI’s impact in macroeconomic data; change is steady but gradual, similar to that of the internet. “It drives real economic gains, but they’re within the historical norm for new technologies,” the researchers noted.
In the “substant…
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